Published in Journal of Climate, 2024
Recommended citation: Schwarzwald, Kevin, and Richard Seager. 2024. “Revisiting the ‘East African Paradox’: CMIP6 Models Also Struggle to Reproduce Strong Observed Long Rain Drying Trends.” Journal of Climate (Early Online Release). https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0225.1. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0225.1
Published in Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2023
Recommended citation: Anderson, Weston, Benjamin I. Cook, Kim Slinski, Kevin Schwarzwald, Amy McNally, and Chris Funk. 2023. “Multiyear La Niña Events and Multiseason Drought in the Horn of Africa.” Journal of Hydrometeorology 24 (1): 119–31. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-22-0043.1. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-22-0043.1
Published in Journal of Climate, 2022
Recommended citation: Schwarzwald, Kevin, Richard Seager, Mingfang Ting, and Alessandra Giannini. 2023. “Large-Scale Stability and the Greater Horn of Africa Long and Short Rains.” Journal of Climate Early Online Release (aop): 1–45. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0126.1. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0126.1
Published in Climate Dynamics, 2022
Recommended citation: Schwarzwald, Kevin, Lisa Goddard, Richard Seager, Mingfang Ting, and Kate Marvel. 2023. “Understanding CMIP6 Biases in the Representation of the Greater Horn of Africa Long and Short Rains.” Climate Dynamics 61 (3): 1229–55. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06622-5. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06622-5
Published in PNAS, 2022
Statistical projections of the socioeconomic impacts of climate change are increasingly used in policy, development, and the private sector to understand and prepare for climate risks. Climate uncertainty is the dominant source of uncertainty in many of these projections. Such studies increasingly account for some sources of climate uncertainty, including differences between climate models and emissions scenarios. However, uncertainty due to internal climate variability is generally ignored. We show that internal variability substantially boosts the uncertainty by 38% on average for near-term mortality, corn yields, and gross domestic product projections in the continental United States. Omitting uncertainty due to internal variability could lead to an underestimation of worst-case impacts and/or a misallocation of resources in climate mitigation and adaptation efforts.
Recommended citation: Schwarzwald, Kevin, and Nathan Lenssen. 2022. “The Importance of Internal Climate Variability in Climate Impact Projections.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119 (42): e2208095119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2208095119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2208095119
Published in Journal of Climate, 2021
Recommended citation: Schwarzwald, Kevin, Andrew Poppick, Maria Rugenstein, Jonah Bloch-Johnson, Jiali Wang, David McInerney, and Elisabeth J. Moyer. 2021. “Changes in Future Precipitation Mean and Variability across Scales.” Journal of Climate 34 (7): 2741–58. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0001.1. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0001.1